Centrist Power In District 14
In Which: Eric Swalwell doesn't submit a candidate statement, California law pushes districts toward the Center, And the systems that keep the Left out of National Politics.
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So Safe, They Don’t Even Try Anymore
Eric Swalwell is going to win California Congressional District 14. It’s been obvious for months, but his arrogance overwhelmed me when looking at the Alameda County Voter Information Guide. Although he swept the primaries—getting over 66% of the votes—I was expecting him to at least submit a candidate statement. It would have been a great way to reaffirm his vision for the District and even highlight some of the work he’s done in Congress to people who don’t have Instagram.
But he didn’t even submit a statement.
That’s a problem. What that tells me, as a voter, is he’s so confident he’ll be re-elected—by virtue of having a D by his name—that he doesn’t care about demonstrating his value. There’s every indication that Eric Swalwell will maintain his seat until it’s redistricted out from under him, he steps down, or he dies of old age.
So since there’s no public City Council meeting this week—they’re interviewing City Manager candidates in Closed Session—I wanted to give some context about our Congressional District and why we’re in a Congressional rut.
The District Boundaries
For those who don’t know, California is a state that doesn’t allow the political party in power to draw districts. While places like Florida are mired in lawsuits over gerrymandering by politicians, in 2008 California voters decided to give the power to draw districts to a Citizens Redistricting Commission. This takes the job away from elected officials and gives it to an appointed board of 14 people.
The Commission has 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 from neither party. And though it was criticized by Democrats at the time for making safe seats more competitive, the idea is a good one. The Democrats and Republicans will fight against each other’s interests, so it’s less likely to be biased. The process encourages a kind of middle ground or “purple” district as opposed to strongly blue or red.
You can see this in action when you look at how Hayward’s district has changed. Before the Redistricting Commission, we were a part of District 13 which included San Leandro, Alameda, Fremont, Union City, Newark, and all the unincorporated areas around us.
This made a lot of sense: using the hills as a border, it grouped a lot of Bay Area cities together who share a common interest. It also had more People of Color. But after redistricting, Hayward’s district changed to include Dublin, Pleasanton, San Ramon, and Livermore—cutting out Alameda, San Leandro, Newark, and most of Fremont.
That shift to include whiter, more affluent, and more conservative cities shifted our district toward the center. It also birthed the political career of former prosecutor, noted Zionist, and Midjourney result for “Establishment Democrat,” Eric Swalwell. Between the Democrat instinct to flee to the center and the purple-centric redistricting process, the new political advantage in our district is to put forward a moderate white-man Democrat.
The Nature of Partisan Elections
At the end of the day, Eric Swalwell is a symptom of a larger problem. He’s the result of a system that is resistant to change, can be manipulated to the centrist’s advantage, and is prohibitively expensive to break into.
Elections always favor incumbents—I’ve pointed this out before—because they not only have name recognition, but are also a known quantity with the local and national establishment. Considering their behavior toward Joe Manchin, there is nothing too right-leaning for them, even if they work against the party’s best interests. They also have truckloads of money to invest wherever they see fit and have historically ignored—or attacked—those from their Left.
Local elected officials also invest big in House Reps because they help bring Federal funds to the local level—like Swalwell helping with St. Rose, the Hayward Executive Airport, and doubtless other projects I don’t know about. Local electeds rely on that funding, and kissing the ring means they’re more likely to get it. They also have an incentive to block anyone else who may disturb those relationships—especially from the Left.
Then there’s an issue of how a candidate from the left is treated in California elections. Look at Adam Schiff’s Senate campaign. He was being pressured—from the Left—by Katie Porter, who made a name for herself holding big corporations accountable. Schiff knew she was a threat, so he took a good chunk of his millions of dollars in campaign funds and raised the profile of Republican Steven Garvey. Garvey is not going to win a statewide race in California—no Republican is—so he elevated Garvey to avoid a harder race against fellow Democrat Porter.
The DNC has shown, on multiple occasions, that it will bully their Left wing in order to maintain the power of their chosen Centrist candidates. For all the criticism—justified and not—that the Left gets for failing to make a difference in elections, the consistent DNC betrayal of their base doesn’t get enough credit. Their resources will bury any Leftist contender—and the more square miles the race covers, the more expensive it is.
For context, Eric Swalwell’s campaign has received over $5,000,000 in donations this season. He’s brought in so much money that he’s had to offload some to the DNC for having too much. And he’s not afraid to spend it to solidify his power. He donated $11,000—one of his biggest contributions—to the establishment slate running for the local Democratic Central Committee and they won. Half of their funding came from Eric Swalwell’s campaign.
That means a Leftist candidate, even as a Democrat, would first run into friction from the local DCC—they’re on Team Swalwell—to get an endorsement for any office. And if they decide to try for the House with their ideology in tact, they’ll face an army of their peers who are indebted to Swalwell, not to mention his overwhelming fundraising capacity. Plus all the tricks available—like Schiff demonstrated—to sideline them in the primaries and set up an easier November race.
All of these factors—and many others—make it so that Eric Swalwell has no real competition. He spends most of his time trying to dunk on Republicans for the CNN crowd and rubbing shoulders with internet-famous White ladies. He gets to jet around on our tax dollar and live in his 3,000 square foot $1,200,000 Victorian in Washington DC, and can’t even be bothered to have a staffer draft a candidate statement for him. So long as he doesn’t trip over his own shoelaces, he’s golden.
So What Do We Do If We Want Change?
This is a question I struggle with all the time. Changes in the two-party system toward Ranked Choice Voting or some kind of proportional representation system would at least make things more interesting. But when the people who can make that change are the same ones benefitting from the current system… that’s not going to happen.
That’s why I focus on local government. Not only is it way more interesting—seeing axes and coalitions form and break apart in real time is fascinating—but it also has a more direct impact on your daily life. Eric Swalwell doesn’t make sure your roads are paved and Joe Biden doesn’t decide how that ARPA money is spent—that’s people like Angela Andrews and Mark Salinas. They live in your City, drive your streets, and hold meetings where you can bust in and give them a piece of your mind.
Local politics is where you can have a real impact. The system is carrying Eric Swalwell without any effort from him, but Francisco Zermeño still has to work to get your vote. So if I were you, I’d ditch watching Swalwell and the pundits and keep an eye on local politics. If you keep your eyes here, I’ll make sure you know what’s happening.